Model for failure probability calculation & risk evaluation of high arch dam based on risk management

摘要：

For the purpose of high arch dam risk management, natural factors, structural factors and human factors that may lead to high-arch dam failure are summed up on the basis of statistics,_method to identify major failure modes is provided, and high-arch dam failure tree model as well as the state functions of individual major failure modes is established. It is suggested that risk rate, economic loss risk value and life loss risk value should be used to assess the risk of high-arch dams By comparing the means and methods of evaluating high-arch dam failure calamity loss, the principle for determining the allowable risk of the high-arch dams in developing countries as well as the safety evaluation criteria based on risk analysis are established.

关键词： high arch dam reliability failure probability risk analysis risk management

作者: Zaitie CHEN

作者单位: Civil Engineering College,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Shazhou Institute of Technology,Zhangjiagang 215600,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2008 International Conference on Risk and Relianility Management(2008风险与可靠性管理国际会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 477-480

在线出版日期: 2008-11-10（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）