Risk forecast model based on theory of principle component information diffusion

摘要：

The risk forecast model was set up in order to form a scientific comprehensive evaluation, forecast and management system. Based upon the theory of disaster prevention and control and information management, principal component analysis and information diffusion theory were combined. This method diffuses information of principle components targets into all the points where a risk may occur, the input of the method is the date of the condensed principle components targets, the output is the signal vector of the risk grade. The practical diffuse result showed: the information of principle components targets which contained 80％ all information was diffused. The risk forecast estimate maximum was in the middle-risk range. The risk of the dust busywork locale gained all-right forecast and direction.

关键词： principal component analysis information diffusion information diffusion model risk forecast

作者: Dong-mei TIAN Zhong-an JIANG Jian YAO Wei NIU

作者单位: Civil and Environment Engineering School,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing,100083,China;Safety Engineering College,North China Institute of Science and Technology,Yanjian,101601,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2008 International Conference on Risk and Relianility Management(2008风险与可靠性管理国际会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 380-385

在线出版日期: 2008-11-10（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）