Study on project duration risk based on generalization process index and its application

摘要：

This paper firstly introduced the parameter of process control applied to large-scale construction projects--generalizationprocess index (GPI), the Markov trait of monthly generalization process index is discussed, according to the plan generalization process index in a practical project as the original data, the model of Markov computer simulation is established to predict the project process, the forecasts of the project process are realized in using of the language of MATLAB Predict the project duration according to the predictive value of the process with the Monte Carlo simulation. The project duration risk is shown according to the distribution of forecast duration, its simulation results are analyzed at the end. Based on the predictive value of the model, owners can learn the project process and its project duration risk macroscopically and easy to ensure the final process controlling goal.

关键词： generalization process index Markov simulation process control Monte Carlo simulation project duration risk

作者: Chang-ming HU Xia WANG Jian YIN YanYAN

作者单位: Xian University of Architecture & Technology,Xian,710055,China Shanghai BaoYe Construction Corp.Ltd,Shanghai,200941,China Xian University of Architecture &Technology,Xian,710055,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2008 International Conference on Risk and Relianility Management(2008风险与可靠性管理国际会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 345-350

在线出版日期: 2008-11-10（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）