Risk analysis of construction duration based on improved probability analysis method in PERT

摘要：

In a construction project where duration truly equals money, the management of duration is critical, thus predicting the likelihood of duration may play a key role towards project success. Project managers should know the completion probability in order to take the necessary corrective actions On the basis of the researches of other scholars, this paper analyzed the traditional probability analysis method for duration risk in PERT and its existing problems. Aiming at the existing problems, it put forward improved probability analysis method. The result shows that the improved method is convenient, effective and efficient. It provides scientific basis for project decision-making and supports the decider powerfully.

关键词： duration risk completion probability critical path probability distribution PERT

作者: HUANG JianWen WANG XingXia ZHOU YiHong

作者单位: College of Economic & Management,China Three Gorges University,Yichang,Hubei Province 443002,China College of Civil & Hydroelectric Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang,Hubei Province 44

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2008 International Conference on Risk and Relianility Management(2008风险与可靠性管理国际会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 295-299

在线出版日期: 2008-11-10（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）