A Risk Alert Model for Exceptional Farm Produce Price Fluctuation Based on Calamities Grey Prediction Theory and Its Application

摘要：

Since the culturists and the consumers would suffer much unexpected loss because of the exceptional fluctuations of farm produce price, so forecasting them becomes increasingly important today. In order to resist this price risk effectively, a risk alert model for exceptional changes of farm produce price is proposed based on calamities grey prediction theory, and the feasibility of the model is tested by a case subsequently. The case study provides satisfying support for the validity of the model.

关键词： farm produce price risk forecast calamities grey prediction

作者: Yong ZHANG Tianlei GONG Shijiu YIN

作者单位: College of Operations Research and Management,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 276826,China;Business School,Jiangnan University,Wuxi 214122,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2008 International Conference on Risk and Relianility Management(2008风险与可靠性管理国际会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 245-248

在线出版日期: 2008-11-10（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）