Venture quantitative prediction of tongxuan expressway on economic and benefit based on elementary catastrophe theory

摘要：

The huge scale of capital investment and diversification of the investors are the two most significant characters in present expressway construction in China. So economic and benefit risk assessment and prediction of expressway project research has attracted more and more attentions from bank, government, researchers, engineers, and private investors, and this is directly relate to the problem of how to balance the supply of transportation to ensure the need of society and economy with the invest profit and the operation of the project. Selected Tongxuan expressway in Anhui province that lies in middle-east of China as practical example and obtained initial finical data and related information through in-site survey and collection from Tongxuan expressway management corporation and processed them with corresponding project financial analysis methods. Base on these, some related indexes accounting to economic and benefit evaluation and financial result were selected, and with the help of elementary catastrophe theory and the method of risk list method, some conclusions and explanation on venture quantitative prediction were given.

关键词： venture quantitative prediction economic and benefit risk risk identification elementary catastrophe theory

作者: Jian LEE Yuanbua JIA Zuogong WANG Guchang AO Feng CHEN Chuanrong CAO

作者单位: College of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,100044,Beijing,China Financial Management Department,AnHui Tongxuan Expressway Co.Ltd,244000,Tongling City,Anhui Province

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2008 International Conference on Risk and Relianility Management(2008风险与可靠性管理国际会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 453-457

在线出版日期: 2008-11-10（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）