Driving forces in aquaculture different scenarios towards 2030
During the past decades, the aquaculture industry has expanded, diversified, intensified,integrated and made technological advancements. According to FAOs statistics,aquacultures contribution to the global supply of fish continues to grow, increasing from9.3 percent of total production (excluding aquatic plants) in 1985 to 34.1 percent of total production in 2005. The production from aquaculture has almost doubled during the pastten years, increasing from 24.4 million tonnes in 1995 to 48.1 million tonnes in 2005. At the same time, the production from capture fisheries has stabilized at approximately 93 million tonnes. The worlds population is projected to grow from six billion in 1999 to nine billion by 2042, an average annual increase of 69 million people. Given this population growth, stable consumption per capita and a stable production from capture fisheries of 95 million tonnes, the aquaculture sector will need to supply 89 million tonnes in 2030.Aquaculture production would thus be greater than capture fisheries in 2035. Importantfactors with assumed future impact on the aquaculture industry towards 2030 includeclimatic changes, environmental issues, access to sites and water, raw material supply for feed, pandemics and fish health management, integration and ownership structures, foodsafety and traceability. The forces with high impact and a high level of uncertainty are presented as a basis for some future scenarios for aquaculture.
Kjersti Gravningen
PHARMAQ AS Oslo,Norway
国际会议
青岛
英文
17-26
2007-05-29（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）