Reliability and Risk Analysis of the Slope Stability Based on Monte-Carlo
The risk evaluation of slope stability is always a concerned content by many geotechnical workers. Based on the orthognnal experiments and Monte-Carlo method, the sensitivity analysis of influencing factors and reliability of slope instability are researched. The results show that the shear strength parameters, c and φ, are the two most important factors affecting slope stability, and the safety coefficient of slope will reduced with the decrease of values of c and φ; after statistic to the samples of safety coefficient we fred which obeys normal distribution of N(1.053, 0.145), the rate-of-failure of slope is 35.6％, and the slope is belong to unstable type. in addition, the accumulation failure probability of slope will grow with the increase of safety coefficient, for example, the rate-of-failure of slope will reach 73.8％ when design standard of safety coefficient of slope is more than 1.15. In a word, the stability of evaluated slope is very bad, and the risk of failure is comparatively large, so, the monitoring and the works of prevention and control of slope must be strengthen from now on.
slope sensitivity analysis orthognnal experiments Monte-Carlo risk evaluation
HOU Kepeng LI Kegang
Faculty of Land Resource Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,Yunnan,China
国际会议
The 2008 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology(2008年安全科学技术国际会议)
北京
英文
2176-2179
2008-09-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）