Run-off-Road Accident Prediction Model for Two-Lane Highway

摘要：

A brief literature review on run-off-road (ROR) accident prediction model was made. Road geometry, traffic volume, accidents, roadside hardware and features data of 31 rural two-lane highways (total 740 kilometers) were collected to develop ROR accident prediction models. Based on four types of statistical distributions, i.e. Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial, ROR accident frequency, fatality and injury models were built. Elasticity analysis estimated the effects of influential factors in these models such as roadway geometry, truck traffic.

关键词： roadside safety accident prediction model elasticity analysis statistical distribution Poisson negative binomial zero-inflated Poisson zero-inflated negative binomial

作者: LI Changcheng ZHANG Gaoqiang LI Wei

作者单位: Research Institute of Highway,Ministry of Communications,Beijing 100088,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 2008 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology(2008年安全科学技术国际会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 2016-2020

在线出版日期: 2008-09-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）