Grey Forecasting of Hazards for Mine Enterprise

摘要：

The principle and characteristics of grey model are studied in this paper. The dynamic model GM(1,1) in the form of differential equation are modeled and used to forecast the hazards of Zhongtiaoshan Nonferrous Metal Corp. in Shanxi Province. A middle long term forecasting model for the occurrence of hazards is established. In order to improve the forecasting precision of mine hazards, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting mine hazards is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting mine hazards.

关键词： grey model hazards forecasting systems mine hazards safety evaluating

作者: LUO Chunhong XIE Xianping YU Yanping XING Ji

作者单位: Faculty of Land Resource Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,Yun Dianxi Railway Limited Liability Company,Kunming 650106,Yunnan,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 2008 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology(2008年安全科学技术国际会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 282-285

在线出版日期: 2008-09-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）