Combined Technique of Fault Tree Analysis and Bayesian Network for Risk Assessment in Air Traffic Management System

摘要：

According to the advantages of both fault tree analysis (FTA) and Bayesian networks (BN) in risk assessment, a new technique combining FTA and BN is proposed to provide a robust probabilistic method of reasoning under uncertainty. By this method we can not only get the ordinary results but also obtain some additional data such as posterior probabilities at modeling and analysis level. The paper introduces the algorithm of converting fault tree (FT) to BN, takes risk assessment of mid-air collision in air traffic management (ATM) system as an example, and discusses the advantages of applying this technique to ATM safety risk assessment. Modeling and calculation are processed using GeNIe software. Result shows that the proposed FT-BN combined technique can model and assess the risk more easily and accurately.

关键词： Bayesian networks fault tree analysis air traffic management risk assessment mid-air collision

作者: LIU Sha SUN Ruishan CUI Jing

作者单位: Institute of Civil Aviation Safety,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 2008 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology(2008年安全科学技术国际会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 260-264

在线出版日期: 2008-09-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）