Conception ofSafety Calibration—Alternative Approach to Risk Quantification in Technology
Many of known risk indexes based on easy model: R = S×P; where: R-risk; S-loss; P-probability of loss arising S. Impossibility of estimating even one of indicator S or P causes that classic approach to risk quantification becomes useless. What then? In this paper a conception of completely different approach to risk quantification in any system is presented. This approach is called safety calibration. It bases on the following working hypothesis: if we consider interaction of object Oi (danger source) on object Oj (endangered object), then the loss S and probability P depend on closeness of potentials UN(Oi,t), Up(Oj, t); where: UN(Ot, t)-negative potential of danger source Oi; Up(Oj, t)-positive potential of endangered object Oj; t-time. Such hypothesis can be supported by numerous empirical proofs. For safety calibration the essential issue is defining closeness relation CR of potentials UN(Ot), UP(Oj). This is one of possible definition: UN(Oi) CR Up(Oj) ←→| UN(Oi)-UP(Oj)| ≤ ⊿UKR. Relation CR defined in such way can be interpreted as type of redundancy, most often endurance, parametric, structural, information; it will depend on concrete analysed objects Oi, Oj. Statement that relation CR is set-this is noticing a fact of exceeding predetermined empirical value ⊿UKR, which has an interpretation of critical value; the more this value the more safety is situation. Known examples of critical value are spontaneous combustion values of methane concentration in hard coal mine; minimal contingency of construction enduranoe; minimal redundancy of airplane engine power. Another relation type of closeness CR can be described by probabilistic measure: UN(Oi) CR UP(Oj)←→ PrUN(Oi) ≥ UP(Oj). Conception of safety calibration can be used first of all where begin uncontrolled emissions and flows of extensive values. Then it is formal to generalise concepts and methods known in analysis of forcible fields in such branches as: nuclear power engineering, chemical industry, hydrology. But safety calibration will be only theoretical conception when we can not define and measure potentials UN(Oi) and UP(Oj) register their covariation in time. In the paper there are presented another results ofsafety calibration, such as: danger formation, rule of early danger recognition and other. Conception which is presented here has first of all cognitive meaning but quite general-for the time being-mathematical record. Some of results presented bere are in previous polish pablications of author.
safety calibration risk quantification potential safety scale closeness relation
SZYMANEK Andrzej H.
Technical University of Radom,Poland
国际会议
The 2008 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology(2008年安全科学技术国际会议)
北京
英文
22-26
2008-09-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）