Forecast Model of Market Scale based on Grey Theory- Case Study on On-line Tourism in China

摘要：

Prediction is important for the modern scientific management.Accurate prediction can help the polieymaker make correct decision and promote the decision-making quality.So it is useful for both government management and enterprise investment decision makers to accurately forecast the market scale of the on-line tourism business of China.Linear regression model is frequently used in market investigations.But its precision is worth discussion especially when the sample is small.The results of this research suggest that compared with the Grey Model of GM (1,1),the linear regression model has lower precision.So the Grey Model is much more suitable to forecast the market scale of the on-line tourism business of China.The research is beneficial to tourism forecast.It is predicted that by the year of 2009,the market scale of on-line tourism business of China will come up to more than 10 billion Yuan.

关键词： on-line tourism business market scale forecasting grey system

作者: ZHUANG Xiaoli KANG Chuande

作者单位: China University of Geosciences,Wuhan,Hubei China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: Interantional Conference on Idustry Cluster Development and Management(2008产业基地建设与管理国际研讨会)

会议地点: 常州

会议语种:英文

页码: 755-760

在线出版日期: 2008-06-27（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）