Fire Public Liability Insurance Rate Determination by Coupling Risk Assessment and Statistics
This paper presents a fire public liability insurance rate determination method based on quantitative risk assessment for evacuees in building fires. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability of every fire scenarios; number of casualties of a fire scenario. When evaluating probability of every fire scenarios, uncertainty of operational time of every fire protection system is considered to calculate probability of every fire scenario by coupling Markov chain and time-dependent event tree. When evaluating number of casualties of a fire scenario, some uncertainties of occupant evacuation time and onset time to untenable conditions are considered. Fire detection and alarm time is expressed as a probability distribution with consideration of stochastic fire growth rate. Oeeupant pre-movement time is charactedzed by normal distribution. Thus, variation of number of people remaining in the room with time can be obtained. Moreover, onset time of untenable conditions can also be characterized by probability distribution with consideration of uncertainty of design fires. Number of casualties of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then fire risk to life can be evacuated with consideration of fire ignition frequency. Finally, fire public liability insurance rote can be determined by coupling fire risk assessment result and statistical fire fatalities and injuries rate.
fire public liability insurance fire risk assessment evacuation event tree Markov chain
CHU Guanquan SUN Jinhua XW Liansheng DUAN Xiaorui
Waterborne Transportation Institute,Ministry of Communications,Beijing 100088,China;State Key Labora State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,Anhu Waterborne Transportation Institute,Ministry of Communications,Beijing 100088,China
国际会议
The 2008 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology(2008年安全科学技术国际会议)
北京
英文
2306-2311
2008-09-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）