Study on Influence of Balance of Payment on Money Supply and Its Transmission Mechanism under Exchange Rate Stability Goal
This paper applies regression analysis, Granger test and generalized differential regression analysis, etc to make choice of proportion of foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange agent variables M2 as balance of payment, and base money agent variables as money supply. This paper has made theoretical and empirical analysis on the influence of balance of payment with money supply since reform of exchange rate system in 1994. It reveals the current balance of payments transmission mechanism which affects money supply:Monetary demand mechanism and exchange rate arrangements mechanism, then reached the following conclusions: (1) Foreign exchange reserves is closely related to M2, and foreign exchange reserves is the main reason for M2 significant Granger. (2) Proportion of foreign exchange reserves shows positive correlation with base money. With increase of foreign exchange reserves, proportion of foreign exchange reserves increasingly influences the base money.Based on it, under the objective of exchange rate stability, to reduce the balance of payment impact on money supply, it should mainly start from balance of international payments reform and put forward the management system of foreign exchange reserves.
Balance of payment Money supply Transmission mechanism
TANG Anbao FU Li
School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology,P.R.China,221116 School of International Economics and Trade,Beijing International Studies University,P.R.China,10002
国际会议
The 5th International Annual Conference on WTO and Financial Engineering(第五届WTO与金融工程国际会议)
杭州
英文
116-122
2008-05-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）