Empirical Study on World Oil Price Influenced from OPEC Output

摘要：

As the organization of oil exporting countries,OPEC has exerted great influences on the oil price all through.However,as the oil price is soaring after world financial crisis in 1998,OPECs ability to manipulate oil price has brought about myriads of debates.To make certain the question,this paper is committed to analyze the dynamic influences of OPEC output on oil price since its rising from 1999.Using two periods data of 1973-1983 and 1999-2006,this paper built Error Correction Model for OPEC output and oil price.Through the comparison between two periods,it is highlighted that OPEC output and the oil price have cointegration and bidirectional Granger causality.The results from Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition also point out that OPEC output still has notable impact on oil price in short term,but with lower intensity and time lag.

关键词： Oil price OPEC output Impulse response function Variance decomposition

作者: LIANG Lin lin Ql Zhong ying

作者单位: School of Management,Harbin Institute of Technology,P.R.China,150001

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2007 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering(2007管理科学与工程国际学术会议)

会议地点: 河南焦作

会议语种:英文

页码: 2299-2304

在线出版日期: 2007-08-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）