A Kernel Method-based Study on the Short Term Forecasting Model of County Territory Economy

摘要：

County territory economy,the basic unit of national economy,is a kind of mid-economy between macro-economy and micro-economy.The components of its economic system,a complexity large scale system,have the characteristics of multi-levels,large quantity and complicated structure.The forecasting of county territory economy involves many influential factors and it is hard to have a thorough consideration if only one forecasting method is used.In order to make the forecasting results more accurate and have practical values,this article takes the complexity system theory as a point of departure and puts forwards a kernel method as the main method of carrying out various short term forecasts to form a cluster and it has done an empirical analysis of the short term forecasting of the GDP of a county-level city.

关键词： County territory economy Complexity large scale system Forecasting Kernel method

作者: LI Xuemei FU Lin

作者单位: The Center for Infrastructural Research,School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,P.R.China,100044

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2007 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering(2007管理科学与工程国际学术会议)

会议地点: 河南焦作

会议语种:英文

页码: 864-869

在线出版日期: 2007-08-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）