A Forecasting Model of Financial Risk for Manufacturing Listed Companies in China
Manufacturing industry plays an important role in every country. At present, most of the ST companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange are manufacturing companies. Therefore, its very necessary to work out suitable prediction method. Selecting 27 specially treated manufacturing listed companies which are newly added in 2006 and their 27 corresponding manufacturing listed companies which are in normal financial conditions as the comparative samples, the present article makes use of 22 financial ratios based on public accounting data from 2003 to 2005 to analyze the most important financial ratios for forecasting the financial risk of manufacturing companies. After a series of tests such as K-S test, T test, M-W-W test, and collinearity diagnostics, a logistic regression model is set up, on the basis of which the article finally concludes that five financial ratios such as growth rate of net assets and net assets per share, ete, have very significant effects on judging whether a manufacturing listed company will plunge into financial risk, among them growth rate of net assets is the most significant one.
manufacturing company financial risk forecasting Multi-logistic regression
XIAO Xiang BAI Xue
School of management of Beijing jiaotong university 100044
国际会议
2008 International Conference of Management Science and Engineering(2008管理科学与工程国际学术会议)
河南焦作
英文
32-38
2008-11-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）