Chinas Energy Supply and Demand Contradiction Early-warning Based on System Dynamics
Energy is the material base of social economic development and the status of energy supply and demand influences the scientific development of social economy. Influenced by Chinas energy deposit status and economic cyclical fluctuation, energy supply and demand presents cyclical imbalance, which in turn restrain the development of social economy. Therefore it plays an important role in promoting the balanced development of social economy to carry on Chinas energy supply and demand contradiction early-warning. In this paper, energy supply and demand contradiction early-warning indexes are determined on the basis of influence factor analysis.The warning limit and warning degree is determined according to historical statistics. Then the system dynamic model of energy supply and demand system is established.Using this model, Chinas energy supply and demand status is forecasted and energy supply and demand contradiction early-warning is carried on according to the fixed early-warning limit and degree. The result shows that under different economic development condition Chinas energy supply and demand status presents different warning degree.
energy energy supply and demand contradiction system dynamics early-warning
Minghui Zhang Xuefeng Song Yongfeng Li
School of Management China University of Mining and Technology Xuzhou Jiangsu 221008, China School of Environment and Spatial Informatics China University of Mining and Technology Xuzhou Jiang
国际会议
2007 Conference on Systems Science, Management Science and System Dynamics(第二届系统科学、管理科学与系统动力学国际会议)
上海
英文
2853-2858
2007-10-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）