An Urban Motor Vehicle Inventory Fore-casting Method

摘要：

Over the past years, many different models have been proposed to forecast the motor vehicle inventory in cities. This paper demon-strates the feasibility of system dynamics using in this problem, and the idea about how to establish the forecasting model is obtained by the analysis of related factors and causalities in the urban traffic system. Having constructed the model by dint of stimulating software, and indicated the techniques to analyze the models validity and behaviors, the authors verified credibly by the case study of Jiangmens motorcycles, and the models behavior was observed after changing three main parameters in the light of given rules. Finally, reasonable policies are put forward according to the simulating results in the characteristic years.

关键词： system dynamics, motor vehicle inventory forecasting urban traffic

作者: Yazao Yang Wenzhou Jin

作者单位: Intelligent Transportation Systems and Logistics Technology Institute South China University of Technology Guangzhou, Guangdong, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2007 Conference on Systems Science, Management Science and System Dynamics(第二届系统科学、管理科学与系统动力学国际会议)

会议地点: 上海

会议语种:英文

页码: 2633-2640

在线出版日期: 2007-10-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）