The Optimal Cut-off Rules is not Optimal, is it?

摘要：

The cut-off rules have advantages in solving no information problem of sequential observation and selection. The established optimal cut-off rule was calculated based on the revenue function of classic secretary problems assumptions, which maximized the revenue with high risk. From the bounded rationality perspective, people are often conservative when they are facing uncertainty situations with gain.Thereby, it is worth to investigate how to reduce the risk of the established optimal cut-off rules.In this study, we relaxed one of the assumptions of classic secretary problem and proposed a more generalized revenue function.Furthermore, we revised the established optimal cut-off rule based on the other two heuristic rules and 80/20 rule, and also compared the original and revised cut-off rules through the revenue function by simulation method. Results indicate that the revised cut-off rule is risk aversion and has better average revenue. The simulation experiments, which proved the 20 percent is the optimal proportion of the revised cut-off rule, bringing this paper to the close.

关键词： Decision-making Heuristic Rules Prospect Theory Bounded Rationality

作者: Yuan Wang Kanliang Wang Qingshun Liu

作者单位: The Management School Xian JiaoTong University Xian, China The Management School Xian Polytechnic University Xian, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2007 Conference on Systems Science, Management Science and System Dynamics(第二届系统科学、管理科学与系统动力学国际会议)

会议地点: 上海

会议语种:英文

页码: 2197-2204

在线出版日期: 2007-10-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）