Modeling the effects of urbanization on the environmental indicators in Jiangsu province,China
According to the characters of the coupling system, a system dynamics (SD) model of the coupling system between urbanization and eco-environment is designed by means of ISM and SD methods and the five scenarios that are natural urbanization, popular urbanization, economic urbanization, spatial urbanization and social urbanization are simulated and analyzed. The results are as follows. Firstly, the accuracy assessment with historical data covering 1990 to 2003 indicates the SD model is reliable, to a certain extent, which can reveal some complex behaviors of the coupling system, and evaluate the potential effects that urbanization intimidated eco-environment. Secondly, the five development models are significantly different in both comparative advantages and drawbacks. And it is revealed that only when either population urbanization model or society urbanization model is adopted correspondingly could the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eco-environment be realized.
urbanization eco-environment ISM SD Modeling
Yaobin Liu Xuefeng Song
School of Public Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, P.R. China School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, P.R. China
国际会议
2007 Conference on Systems Science, Management Science and System Dynamics(第二届系统科学、管理科学与系统动力学国际会议)
上海
英文
1455-1462
2007-10-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）