a study of Chinese rapid urbanization based on system dynamics model

摘要：

Based on the analysis of urbanization mechanism, making use of the theory and method of system dynamic(SD), this paper builds up SD model in the stage of the rapid urbanization in China, simulates and forecasts the evolution of urbanization of China in the future 50 years. The error of this model is very small, which definitely proves it credible and in a certain extent reflects the rapid proceeding of analyzes the influences of urbanization in the different policies respectively.The research shows that: until the middle of 21st century, urbanization rate of China will reach over 60 percent, and urbanization will enter slow and stable developmental stage.

关键词： urbanization SD model simulate China.

作者: Weihua Guan Chaolin Gu Jie Zhu Laili Tao

作者单位: Geographical Science College Nanjing Normal University 210046 Department of urban and Regional planning Tsinghua University 100084 Department of Urban and Regional planning Nanjing University 210097

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2007 Conference on Systems Science, Management Science and System Dynamics(第二届系统科学、管理科学与系统动力学国际会议)

会议地点: 上海

会议语种:英文

页码: 549-560

在线出版日期: 2007-10-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）