RAPID EXPOSURE AND LOSS ESTIMATES FOR THE MAY 12, 2008 Mw 7.9 WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE PROVIDED BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEYS PAGER SYSTEM
One half-hour after the May 12th Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake, the U.S. Geological Surveys Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system distributed an automatically generated alert stating that 1.2 million people were exposed to severe-to-extreme shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII or greater). It was immediately clear that a large-scale disaster had occurred. These alerts were widely distributed and referenced by the major media outlets and used by governments, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses. The PAGER alerts and Web pages included predictive ShakeMaps showing estimates of ground shaking, maps of population density, and a list of estimated intensities at impacted cities. Manual,revised alerts were issued in the following hours that included the dimensions of the fault rupture. Within a half-day, PAGERs estimates of the population exposed to strong shaking levels stabilized at 5.2 million people. A coordinated research effort is underway to extend PAGERs capability to include estimates of the number of casualties. We are pursuing loss models that will allow PAGER the flexibility to use detailed inventory and engineering results in regions where these data are available while also calculating loss estimates in regions where little is known about the type and strength of the built infrastructure. Prototype PAGER fatality estimates are currently implemented and can be manually triggered. In the hours following the Wenchuan earthquake, these models predicted fatalities in the tens of thousands.
Wenchuan Earthquake rapid response PAGER ShakeMap earthquake loss estimation
P.S. Earle D.J. Wald T.I. Allen K.S. Jaiswal K.A. Porter M.G. Hearne
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center, Golden, CO, USA Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
国际会议
14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering(第十四届国际地震工程会议)
北京
英文
2008-10-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）