Seismic Design Under Time-Varying Epistemic Uncertainty and Safety Constraints
Decisions involving complex systems with not well-known properties are complicated by the fact that epistemic uncertainties and risk regulations vary over time in an uncertain way. In practice, one often makes approximations by fixing the epistemic variables to most likely or worst-case values and ignores future changes in safety constraints. Such simplifications produce sub-optimal decisions. We propose a Bayesian framework for decision-making that explicitly accounts for the above random fluctuations and obtain numerical results for the optimal seismic design of low-rise and high-rise buildings. As expected, when future changes in epistemic uncertainty and regulatory constraints are considered, the optimal level of seismic protection exceeds the normative level at the time of construction.
seismic design epistemic uncertainty acceptable safety life-cycle cost Markov processes.
Daniele Veneziano Anna Agarwal Erdem Karaca
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, U.S. Geological Survey, PO Box 25046, Denver, CO, USA
国际会议
14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering(第十四届国际地震工程会议)
北京
英文
2008-10-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）