QUANTIFICATION OF STRUCTURAL PROBABILITY OF FAILURE DUE TO EXTREME EVENTS
This paper tries to probe the composition of probability of failure (POF) in reliability-based structural design. The focus is on extreme event (EE) related risk of structural failure. Extreme events that may cause structural failure are often described by a severity-based threshold which can be a hazard intensity measure or return period. Such definition of EE is not directly connected to the POF. In order to quantify its portion of risk in the overall POF, a different definition is formulated. It is shown that this new definition of EE delineates a subset of failure events which not only coincides with the severity-based definition in terms of probability value but also represents the tail properties of the demand and capacity distribution models. Examples are given to illustrate the use of this approach to evaluate EE in hazard load comparison for structural design. It is hoped that this effort will help to put some EE related structural design issues (e.g. uncertainty of hazard loading, different demand and capacity models, the influence of tail property of probabilistic distribution models, extreme event limit states, and load combinations etc.) in proper perspective. .
probability of failure extreme events tail probability upper tail of demand lower tail of capacity
Mai Tong Sangyul Cho Jincheng Qi George C. Lee
FEMA, USA Dept. of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, University at Buffalo (SUNY), USA MCEER, University at Buffalo (SUNY), USA
国际会议
14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering(第十四届国际地震工程会议)
北京
英文
2008-10-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）