MEASURING ECONOMIC IMPACT OF A DISASTER WITHOUT DOUBLE COUNTING: A THEORETICAL ANALYSIS

摘要：

This paper proposes a methodology for consistent measurement of economic losses caused by natural azards. A two-sector economic growth model is used to describe recovery process after a disaster. It is hown that sum of the differences of discounted cash-flow in industrial sectors is consistent measure as total economic loss. It consists of Foregone Net Revenue and Restoration Investment. This paper also proposes how to measure the cascade effect, which is the spillover effect of economic impacts induced by mutual relation ships between industrial sectors A numerical simulation demonstrates how much cascade effect enlarges the total economic loss and the incidents

关键词： double counting of economic loss cascade effect economic growth model

作者: H. Tatano K. Nakano

作者单位: Professor,Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Kyoto University,Uji. Japan Ph.D Candidate,Graduate School of Informatics,Kyoto University,Kyoto,Japan

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering(第十四届国际地震工程会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

在线出版日期: 2008-10-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）