PROBABILISTIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF FAULT DISPLACEMENTS
A reliable estimate of potential fault displacements is needed in the engineering design of lifeline structures crossing potentially active faults, such as bridges, tunnels, dams, water pipes and gas lines. This paper outlines the methodology for the assessment of permanent ground displacement across a fault induced by an earthquake. Furthermore, application of the presented methodology to the South Iceland Seismic Zone is summarised, including presentation of hazard curves and a comparative study of the theoretical results and observed effects of some historic earthquakes. The presented model is probabilistic in nature and, to a certain degree, comparable to the models commonly applied in assessing peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard. It includes both the uncertainties of the scaling laws of the ground motion effects and the frequency of earthquake occurrence. In addition,the model requires probability of surface rupture effects at the site as well as the conditional probability of a relative displacement over the fault, provided that the earthquake has ruptured the surface. The methodology is implemented using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. A relation between magnitude and displacement over the surface trace of the causative fault for the study sites is presented, as well as hazard curves of surface fault peak displacements, giving the fault displacements corresponding to a chosen mean return period. For example,at one of the study sites 1 m displacement was found to correspond to a mean return period equal to 3000 years,58 cm for 1000 years and about 26 cm for 475 years.
Fault displacement lifelines seismic hazard South Iceland Seismic Zone probabilistic hazard assessment surface fracture
R. Sigbjǒrnsson J.Th. Sn.bjǒrnsson S.M. Higgins S.ólafsson B. Halldósson
EERC, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Iceland Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, University of Iceland, Iceland
国际会议
14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering(第十四届国际地震工程会议)
北京
英文
2008-10-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）