GIS-based prediction of debris flows and landslides in southwestern China
The southwestern region of China, including Yunnan Province, Sichuan Province, Guizhou Province and Chongqing City, is the area most severely affected by debris flows and landslides in China. There are about 15,000 known debris flow and landslide disaster sites, and they pose severe hazards for the local residents and their properties each year. Disaster prediction is the most important measure to minimize casualties from these hazards. This paper outlines a disaster prediction model for debris flows and landslides using statistical methods, and sets up a disaster prediction system using GIS techniques, based on the regional environmental background (including topography, geology, earthquakes, land-use and rainfall), data on debris flows and landslides, and historical disasters records. This system provides a disaster forecast for 12 hours and 24 hours in the future based on rainfall forecasting results using numerical weather prediction by the China Meteorological Administration, and observed data on rainfall from weather stations in the study area. The prediction system was tested by the China Meteorological Administration in the rainy season of 2005. The forecasting result had a high veracity, but the method requires improved spatial analysis of rainfall observed data.
GIS debris flow landslide prediction southwestern China
F.Q. Wei K.C. Gao Y.H. Jiang S.W. Jia P. Cui J. Xu G.P. Zhang B.G. Bi
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Science, and Institute of National Satellite Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
国际会议
成都
英文
479-490
2007-05-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）