Measurement and Estimation of Bubble in Shanghai Housing Market in China

摘要：

In order to test the existence of speculative bubble in Shanghai housing market,this paper quantifies the rational speculation and the herding speculation,construets a parameter model and a timevarying parameter model,and introduces an early-warning criteria of residential supply non-transformed rate index.The results show that there are different types of speculative bubbles in Shanghai housing market,the impact of different specul ation on housing prices is changing with time.Especially in 2005-2007,the impact have the strengthened the trend.Additionally,the warning information indicates the existence of bubble in Shanghai hous-ing market from 2003,and the situation became worse after 2005.

关键词： Housing speculation Parameter model Time-varying parameter model Warning information

作者: Feng CHEN

作者单位: College of Economics,Huazhong Normal University,Wuhan,Hubei Province,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 2008 International Conference on Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering(BIFE 2008)(商业智能和金融工程国际会议)

会议地点: 长沙

会议语种:英文

页码: 754-762

在线出版日期: 2008-10-28（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）