The Research of Estate Logistics Investment Risk Based on Monte Carlo Method

摘要：

This essay analyzes the development trend of the estate logistics at present and the factors of estate logistics investment risk.The conception of the estate logistics investment risk have been defined .Combined with Monte Carlo Method to analyze net present value model and risk degree model and investment risk probability model which used in analysis of estate logistics investment risk with the help of software EXCEL. Using the Monte Carlo Method to simulate the example which have been given in this essay,according to simulation results to draw diagrams for risk analysis and risk assessment,then to describe the reliability of the simulation by accumulate probability chart.

关键词： estate logistics investment risk Monte Carlo Method net present value risk degree reliability

作者: DI Xuekun CAO Qingkui

作者单位: College of Economy & Management,Hebei University of Engineering

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2008 International Conference on Lofistics Engineering and Supply Chain(2008物流与供应链管理国际研讨会)

会议地点: 长沙

会议语种:英文

页码: 683-689

在线出版日期: 2008-08-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）