Improvement of Demand Forecasting Accuracy: A Method Based on Region-Division

摘要：

The key factor to increase enterprise profits and reduce the logistic costs is scientific and reasonable logistics demand forecasting, the accuracy of which can directly influence the effect of decision-making for an enterprise. In some instance, a single customers demand is irregular,while the demand in a region is comparatively more stable, so it can be better forecasted. In this paper, we have proposed a method to form regions in order that the demand in these regions can be more efficient forecasted while the error of transportation cost caused by replacement of customers by regions can be controlled. Each formed region consists of adjacent customers with similar unit transportation cost to all distributors. Numerical test with data form Northeast Subsidiary Company of China National Petroleum Corporation shows that the method can improve forecast accuracy efficiently.

关键词： logistics forecasting accuracy region-division clustering algorithm

作者: Guoshan Liu Yuanyuan Lu

作者单位: School of Business, Remin University of China, Beijing, P.R.China, 100872 School of Business, Remin University of China, Beijing, P.R.China, 100872 Mathematical College, Jili

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The Seventh International Symposium(ISORA08)(第七届国际效力研究及其应用学术会议)

会议地点: 云南丽江

会议语种:英文

页码: 440-446

在线出版日期: 2008-10-31（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）