A Cointegration Analysis of the Relationships among Tax Revenue and Macroeconomic Factors in China
Using macroeconomic factors to forecast tax revenue is an important means of tax revenue forecasting, and it is also a challenging issue in China to which State Administration of Taxation pays close attention. As a prerequisite, the relationships among tax revenue and certain macroeconomic factors should be examined. In this paper, interactions among tax revenue, GDP,price level, and external trade in China are investigated. With the benefit of cointegration analysis, the long-run equilibrium conditions among tax revenue and these macroeconomic factors are proposed. Based on these cointegrating relations, a vector error correction (VEC) model is then estimated. The results show both long-run and short-run relationships among total tax revenue, GDP,price level, and external trade in China, which could help to promote further studies concerning tax revenue analysis and forecasting using macroeconomic factors.
cointegration vector error correction (VEC) tax revenue macroeconomic factors
Meng-Yao Zhang Jin-Chuan Cui
Institute of Applied Mathematics, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
国际会议
The Seventh International Symposium(ISORA08)(第七届国际效力研究及其应用学术会议)
云南丽江
英文
260-265
2008-10-31（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）