Study on the Establishment of the Forecast Model of System Dynamics in the Strategic Environmental Assessment of Traffic Development Planning in Changchun Municipality
In the research on the environment assessment of the traffic development planning in Changchun, environmental impact forecast is a very important part. This paper tries to adopt system dynamics, a commonly used method to solve complicated non-lineal issues, to analyze and study the traffic and relevant systems in Changchun from the aspects of population, economy, environment, resource and transportation. Forecast models are established for each subsystem, and their validity are checked with historical retrospective test method, and it proves that these models canrepresent the actual systems effectively, so they can provide help for simulating change tendency of various systems in the further research, and reference for applied research of system dynamics in strategic environmental assessment.
Changchun Municipality Traffic development planning Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) System dynamics (SD)
Chen Chong Xu Ye Shang Jincheng
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024 Energy and Environmental Research Center, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206
国际会议
第二届环境影响评价国际论坛(The 2nd China International Forum on Environmental Impact Assessment—SEA in China)
北京
英文
141-151
2007-11-03（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）