The Forecast of Highway Traffic Accident Based on Grey Theory

摘要：

Through the analysis of the number of highway accidents in Henan Province, this paper views the highway as a transportation system which has the characteristics of the grey system, and has many influencing factors; much information is yet to be known. Therefore, this paper chooses the grey forecast technique to predict highway accidents. Using historic data of highway traffic accidents in Henan province, this paper establishes the grey forecast model to predict the highway traffic accident and attempts to master the traffic accidents trend in the future. And a case is analyzed to prove the feasibility of the model.

关键词： Traffic Accident Grey System Forecast Model Residual

作者: Yang Yong Xuan Hua Li Bing

作者单位: School of Management Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, P.R. China, 450001

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 15th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management(IE&EM2008)(第十五届工业工程与工程管理国际学术会议暨中国机械工程学会第11次工业工程年会)

会议地点: 郑州

会议语种:英文

在线出版日期: 2008-09-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）