Weighing iron source outlook against energy outlook-towards a one-region world model of stock in use
Iron and steel are major players of structural materials for social infrastructure and foundations for strengthening industrial competitiveness.At the same time,they confront global challenges due to their mass effect such as a recent rapid growth in steel consumption,a large impact on climate change etc.Although R&D of iron and steel have been made for years,there is still significant potential of technological innovation to solve those challenges with a greater unified effort by the industry-academic-government.Therefore,it is necessary for deciding the amount of R&Ds investment to share the common world-wide iron source demand outlook based on engineered researches of mathematical modeling and continual improvement,which lag behind those of energy.The Intensity of Use hypothesis,which assumes that material consumption is a function of income,is the widely-accepted theory to forecast iron source demand as well as energy outlook.This hypothesis,however,is not effective for a one-region world model of iron source,although there is a clear correlation between total world demand for primary energy and GDP.We point out the necessity to consider a different rational hypothesis for world outlook for iron source demand.
iron source demand outlook mass effect economy
Sumio Kozawa Kimitoshi Yonezawa Hiroyuki Matsuura Fumitaka Tsukihashi
Graduate School of Engineering,The University of Tokyo,Tokyo 113-8656 ,Japan Technical Administration & Planning Div.,Nippon Steel Corp.,Tokyo 100-8071 ,Japan Graduate School of Frontier Sciences,The University of Tokyo,Chiba 277-8561,Japan
国际会议
上海
英文
1248-1251
2008-09-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）