Long and Medium Term Power Load Forecasting with Multi-Level Recursive Regression Analysis
A lot of exogenous factors and the sequential variance held by the power system itself should be considered in the long and medium term load forecasting of power system. In view of these characters, the study on long and medium term load forecasting is worked by the means of multi-level recursive regression in this paper, and the model is established based on it. Forecasting is divided into two parts: the forecasting of time-varying parameters and the forecasting of power load based on the former one. The forecasting accuracy is improved by precise prediction of timevarying parameters and sufficient consideration of the important function of the load-affecting factors. In this paper, the yearly load demand of a region in China from 1996 to 2003 is taken as data for the modeling. Simulation result shows that the average error of the forecasted power load of 2004 to 2006 is 1.52％. So the applicability and advantage of the method is verified.
Dongxiao Niu Yuanyuan Li Da Liu
School of Business Administration North China Electric Power University Beijing, China 102206
国际会议
南宁
英文
2007-07-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）