Sensitivity of the Classified Imports and Exports on the Real Exchange Rate of RMB
The aggregate analysis methodology fails in explaining the relationship between the mix of imports / exports and the change of the real exchange rate of RMB. Thus based on classifying imports / exports merchandise into ten categories according to SITC, from the angles of reactivity and time lag, this paper uses regression method and error correction model to make an empirical study on the relationship between the imports / exports of different commodities and the real exchange rate of RMB respectively. Our research finds that: with the rising of RMB’s real exchange rate, the imports and exports of all 10 categories follow an increasing trend; however, the reactivity of each category to the fluctuation of real exchange rate differentiates. With the increase of RMB’s real exchange rate, margins between import and export of 6 categories of merchandise increase, but those of the rest 4 categories decrease. Furthermore, the margins of all the 10 categories of merchandise respond to the fluctuation of RMB’s real exchange rate with an apparent time lag. According to the finding, we propose that the exchange rate policy of RMB should take the sensitivity of classified merchandise to real exchange rate into account, make proper decision with regard to the opportunity after tradeoff, to improve the validity of China’s exchange rate policy.
classified imports and exports real exchange rate of RMB imports and exports sensitivity analysis
方先明 裴平 熊鹏
南京大学商学院,江苏南京,210093
国际会议
成都
英文
2007-07-09（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）