Integrated Risk Management Approaches for Planning Sustainable Agriculture

摘要：

In this paper we show that explicit treatment of risks and uncertainties in agricultural production planning may considerably alter strategies and agricultural policies to achieve robust outcomes with regard to factors such as environmental impacts, probability and severity of disease outbreaks, agricultural input levels and management, composition of farms, or trade relations. We discuss production planning models under uncertainties and risks that may assist in planning location-specific production expansion within environmental and health risk indicators and constraints. The proposed approaches are illustrated with the example of spatially-explicit livestock production allocation in China to 2030.

关键词： Production planning risks

作者: Gunther Fischer Tatiana Ermolieva Yuri Ermoliev

作者单位: Int. Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 1st International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response(首届风险分析与危机反应国际学术研讨会)

会议地点: 上海

会议语种:英文

页码: 24-29

在线出版日期: 2007-09-25（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）