Risk Analysis of Evacuation under Building Fire Based on Point Estimate Method

摘要：

The risk on the evacuees exposed under building fire is quantified by reliability index β in single-room building, and the probability of successful evacuation is obtained according to β. Random variables influencing the reliability of evacuation are taken into account and described into probabilistic distribution denoting uncertainty characteristics in evacuation, and the performance for evacuation is established. Further more, Rosenblueth method is employed to calculate the reliability index β; the mathematical model for evacuation evaluation is set up. A case analysis is given in this paper to show that this method can perform the calculation of reliability index β.

关键词： fire risk assessment Rosenblueth algorithms evacuation reliability

作者: WANG Jinhui LU Shouxiang WANG Derun ZHANG Xuelin FENG Lei

作者单位: The State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science & Technology of China, HeFei, AnHui, 230026, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 1st International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response(首届风险分析与危机反应国际学术研讨会)

会议地点: 上海

会议语种:英文

页码: 312-316

在线出版日期: 2007-09-25（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）