Study on the Risk Analysis Method of the Flood Forecast System Based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy
Several risk analysis methods of the flood forecast system and their disadvantages are introduced briefly in this paper, then the principle of maximum entropy (POME) applied in risk analysis is presented. The risk analysis model of the flood forecast system based on POME and the solution of this model are established. In the end, take the Huanren Reservoir for example, the risk rate of its flood forecast system is calculated and compared with the risk rate calculated by the JC method. As can be seen from the comparison, using the POME method to calculate the risk rate of the flood forecast system is feasible and practicable.
flood forecast system risk analysis risk rate the principle of maximum entropy (POME)
Diao Yanfang Wang Bende
School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China
国际会议
The 1st International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response(首届风险分析与危机反应国际学术研讨会)
上海
英文
543-548
2007-09-25（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）