会议专题

Risk Analysis of Typhonic Disaster in China

With the increasing tendency of typhoon induced disasters in China, one of the greatest challenges will be to develop effective risk analysis system of typhonic disaster and corresponding preventive design criteria for coastal and offshore structures. In this paper a double-layer nested multi-objective probability model is proposed on the basis of the Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD) and applied to the risk analysis of typhoon induced extreme sea environments for the coastal and offshore engineering. Study shows that, compared with traditional annual maximum data sampling and univariate extrapolation method for extreme value prediction, the new model provides more reasonable results.

Typhonic disaster risk analysis Multivariate compound extreme value distribution Coastal and offshore engineering Preventive criteria.

Liang Pang Defu Liu Botao Xie Yunpeng Jiang

PhD. Student, College of Engineering, Ocean University of China Prof., Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Ocean University of China

国际会议

The 1st International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response(首届风险分析与危机反应国际学术研讨会)

上海

英文

549-555

2007-09-25(万方平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)