Use of Bayesian Method for Assessing Vessel Traffic Risks at Sea
Risks associated with a vessel traffic system at sea are analyzed according to the elements in this system and a new method is developed to ensure safe ship operation. Based on Bayes point estimate and probability influence diagram to estimate the traffic accidents related to vessel traffic, an analysis model is established for the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the vessel traffic system at sea. After the analysis on occurrence likelihood of the accidents related to ship traffic, a structure on the basis of Bayesian networks is developed to obtain the QRA of their relative risks. QRA is also put forward after analyzing the features and situations of the vessel traffic system and identifying the corresponding hazards including characteristics of those hazards. The risk distributions of ship traffic are described and results are presented on QRA in relation to various features by using this risk assessment model. This method, verified in the cases of QRA, turns out to be feasible by the use of identified posterior probability.
ship risk assessment Bayesian network probability influence diagram safety factor
Shenping HU Xudong LI Quangen FANG Zaili YANG
Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, 200135, China Liverpool John Moores University, UK L3 3AF
国际会议
The 1st International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response(首届风险分析与危机反应国际学术研讨会)
上海
英文
714-719
2007-09-25（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）