Mesoscale Thunder and Lighting Numerical Prediction
In this study, the commonly-used 16 convection parameters were calculated by using the output of the non hydrostatic mesoscale model MM5V2(PUS/NCAR). These convection parameters represent four aspects of convective characteristics. The first focuses on conditional stratified instability, such as Showalter index, Lifting index, Best Lifting index and Deep Conviction index. The second describes the situation of the temperature stratification and vapor, such as K index, Total index and A index. The third one is instability energy, such as Convective Inhibition, Downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy, Convective Available Potential Energy and Warm Dry Lid index. The last one shows wind sheer, such as Relative Storm Helicity, Energy Helicity, Sever Weather Threaten index, Strong Wind and Bulk-Richardson Number. Through meteorological data analysis and case study on the thunder, lighting and hail over Beijing area, 9 convection indexes were selected to be a prediction parameter, and it s threshold value were defined. If there are 4 of 9 index beyond it s threshold value, then thunderstorm may occur. Assembling the thunder, lighting and sounding data with above selected convective indexes, the objective forecast method for the thunderstorm in the next 24 hours over Beijing area has been established.
Guo Hu Chen Daren
Beijing meteorological observatory,44 Zizhuyuan Road, Haidian District,Beijing, P.R.C. 100089
国际会议
第13届国际大气电学会议(The 13th International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity)
北京
英文
2007-08-13（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）