Life Prediction of Mechanical Products of GM(1,1) Based on Particle Swarm Optimization

摘要：

When GM(1,1) is used in the life prediction of mechanical products, the experiment cost is saved and the experimental period is shortened. The research on the whitening differential equation of GM(1,1) indicates that both the background value and the initial value of GM(1,1) have important effect on the prediction accuracy. In this paper, a new PSO-GM(1,1,λ ,b ) optimization model has been proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of GM(1,1). Firstly GM(1,1) has been improved with the difference scheme and made use of the parameter λ to correct the background value; secondly the parameter b has been used to correct the initial value; lastly because of the nonlinear traits between the parameters λ ,b and the prediction errors, Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO) has been used to solve the best value of λ ,b according to the criterion of minimizing the absolute value of mean relative error, then a new PSO-GM(1,1,λ ,b ) optimization model has been constructed. The correction deduction and PSO calculation λ ,b show that the prediction accuracy of the PSO-GM (1, 1,λ ,b ) is much higher than that of the GM (1, 1). The two practical examples about the life prediction of mechanical products show that the optimization method of PSO-GM(1,1,λ ,b ) is remarkable.

作者: Liu Hong Zhang Qishan

作者单位: Sch.of Mechanical Eng. & Automation, Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350002 Sch.of Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350002

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2007年IEEE灰色系统与智能服务国际会议(2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

在线出版日期: 2007-11-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）