A Grey System Model for Simulation of Economic Development

摘要：

Economic development is a continuous and dynamic process. It can be divided into three specific components according to different time scales: the long-term trend, the medium-term periodic variation and the short-term random fluctuation. In this paper we used the grey system model to simulate the long-term trend of economic development and obtained the periodic variation from analysis of residual model. Amalgamating the long-term trend and the periodic variation, we obtained periodic correction, from which we got the random fluctuation. Using the periodic variation and the random fluctuation, the whole economic development process has been simulated through developing a predictive model. The application of the model to Shanxi Province shows that the model performs well. This model provides a new analysis method for the development planning of regional economy, which can provide the main scientific basis for the adjustment of economic structure and the economic development of Shanxi Province in the future.

作者: Yonghong Hao Juan Du Wei Wang Xuemeng Wang

作者单位: Key Laboratory for Water Environment and Resources, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin, P.R. China School of Environment and Resources, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, P.R. China Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, P.R. China Institute of Integrated Survey of Agriculture Resource, Taiyuan 030006, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2007年IEEE灰色系统与智能服务国际会议(2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

在线出版日期: 2007-11-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）