Study on Grey-Markov Method and Its Application in Agricultural Production Forecast

摘要：

Grey-Markov forecasting model has the merits of both GM (1, 1) forecast and Markov transition probability matrix forecast, which integrates the grey system and the Markov theory into a higher precision model. Its agricultural application of primary product yield forecast was addressed in this paper. The data of oil plant and cotton yield from 1977 to 2005 in China was used as two forecasted examples, providing references for agricultural production forecast application. Meanwhile, compared with GM (1, 1) forecast model, the result showed that Grey-Markov forecasting model was more suitable for heavy random fluctuation and the forecast precision was satisfactory.

作者: Yi M. Zhou Xiang L. Yang Li R. Wang

作者单位: Zhejiang University, Hangzhou310029, China Institute of Agricultural Bio-Environmental Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou310029, China Zhejiang University City College, Hangzhou310015, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2007年IEEE灰色系统与智能服务国际会议(2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

在线出版日期: 2007-11-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）