Grey Prediction on China’s Energy Consumption and Production

摘要：

The rapid economic growth in China results in the fast energy consumption and production. The dynamic GM(1,N) model of grey theory is used to develop the dynamic GM(1, N) model to forecast the final energy consumption and production in China. In order to improve the forecast accuracy, the original GM(1, N) models are improved by using two methodologies of equal dimension replenishment and residual modification. We analyze the data of total consumption and production of energy and its composition from 1996 to 2005 in China, and forecast China’s energy consumption and production by this grey forecasting model, which shows that the improved grey forecasting model is of more reliability and higher forecast accuracy than GM (1, N).The forecast results indicate that China’s final energy consumption and production will increase rapidly in the period of 2006 to 2015.

作者: Hong-Wei Ma Kai-Ping Ma Dong-Qing Zhang

作者单位: College of Engineering, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210031, China College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics &Astronautics, Nanjing Jiangs

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2007年IEEE灰色系统与智能服务国际会议(2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

在线出版日期: 2007-11-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）