Application of Grey-Markov Model in Predicting Traffic Volume

摘要：

Generally, the planning of highway is designed on the basis of the traffic volume prediction. Because the influence factors of the traffic volume prediction are indeterminate, it leads to great discrepancy between the traffic prediction and the actual volume.Grey-markov forecasting model was founded by applying the model of GM (1,1) and Markov random process theory. The model utilizes the advantages of Grey-markov GM (1,1) forecasting model and Markov random process in order to discover the developing and varying tendency of the forecasting data sequences. When Markov random process is being used to decide the transfer rule of the state, it can not only make full use of the information of the historical data, but also improve the forecasting accuracy of random series. So it develops the applying range of grey forecasting and presents a new method of data sequences with large random. The analysis of an example indicates that the grey-markov model has good forecasting accuracy and excellent applicability.

作者: Li Qingfu Hu Qunfang Zhang Peng

作者单位: Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450002, China Shanghai Institute of Disaster Prevention, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2007年IEEE灰色系统与智能服务国际会议(2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services)

会议地点: 南京

会议语种:英文

在线出版日期: 2007-11-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）