Changes in Natural Runoff at Lanzhou in the Upper Yellow River in Recent 520 Years and its Forecast

摘要：

Based on the reconstruction data of Lanzhou stations natural runoff in the upper reaches of the Yellow River in recent 520 years, the cyclical and interim changes of the natural runoff have been analyzed. The analysis shows that Lanzhou stations natural runoff in recent 520 years has roughly gone through 8 wet and 7 dry periods, and it has significant and stable quasi-four years and 30 years cycles. Forecast analysis indicates that the average for the natural runoff in the next 30 years may be around 26. 2 billion m3, slightly less than the average for many years; and its changes can generally be classified 4 periods: normal, higher, lower and higher.

关键词： change law forecast analysis natural runoff the upper reaches of the Yellow River Lanzhou

作者: Wang Jinhua Zhang Ronggang Kang Lingling Wang Yunzhang

作者单位: Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou, 450003 Hydrology Bureau of YRCC, Zhengzhou, 450004

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 第三届黄河国际论坛(The 3rd International Yellow River Forum on Sustainable Water Resources Management and Delta Ecosystem Maintenance)

会议地点: 山东东营

会议语种:英文

页码: 259-267

在线出版日期: 2007-10-16（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）